Timing of antiviral treatment initiation is critical to reduce SARS‐CoV‐2 viral load
CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology, 2020•Wiley Online Library
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute
respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects
of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy
needs to be> 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could
be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/
pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6–87 …
respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects
of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy
needs to be> 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could
be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/
pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6–87 …
We modeled the viral dynamics of 13 untreated patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 to infer viral growth parameters and predict the effects of antiviral treatments. In order to reduce peak viral load by more than two logs, drug efficacy needs to be > 90% if treatment is administered after symptom onset; an efficacy of 60% could be sufficient if treatment is initiated before symptom onset. Given their pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties, current investigated drugs may be in a range of 6–87% efficacy. They may help control virus if administered very early, but may not have a major effect in severely ill patients.
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